Naperville
In what may be the hottest mayoral race in all of Chicagoland, the race for Naperville Mayor is nearly too close to call.
Going into Election Day, the left-of-center Benny White has a slight edge over center-right Scott Wehrli due to the city’s changing politics. Though the fact that White’s lead is just 1-2% in the latest poll in deep blue Naperville shows Wehrli is running strong and could very well pull off the victory.
It all comes down to turnout, which is where White ought to have an advantage due to his strong ground game and active base support. As expected, White’s vote by mail numbers look strong, though it should be noted Republicans are returning their vote by mail ballots at a 16% higher clip than Democrats, so Wehrli is putting up a fight here. Still, White showed an approximate 1,200 vote advantage in the latest vote by mail report late last week.
The question is: can Wehrli win early voting and Election Day by enough to overcome his deficit coming out of vote by mail? As of the latest report, Republican early vote turnout was strong but only outpacing Democratic early vote turnout by about 100 votes. And our team was on the ground interviewing voters on their way out from early voting, and reactions were nearly evenly split between the two candidates, which isn’t the strong early vote performance Wehrli needs. This means Wehrli is going to have to dominate Election Day to win.
Election Day Rating: Lean White
(It’s worth mentioning Asian turnout is looking very strong—higher even than Black turnout and nearly as high as White turnout. This is driven by four Indian Americans running for city council. Naperville may be on the cusp of electing their first ever Indian American to the city council.)
Lake Forest
The Lake Forest mayoral race is a classic example of the data saying one thing while your eyes tell you something else.
The data says the caucus candidate, Randy Tack, will win handily. Turnout is extremely strong across the board, on pace to be the most ever votes cast in a Lake Forest race. This means neither candidate gains much of an advantage from turnout, which benefits Tack because the city’s makeup is overwhelmingly center-right. As of the latest report on vote by mail and in person early voting, Republicans made up 21% more of the vote share than Democrats, which doesn’t bode well for the progressive Prue Beidler.
But Beidler is running a significantly more active campaign, making local Tack supporters quite nervous. She has significant momentum, which we saw in our polling with undecideds breaking strongly to her. We also saw this momentum firsthand when our team was on the ground interviewing early voters.
But other than a slight uptick in female and Democratic turnout, this momentum isn’t yet showing up in the data. So we’re going to trust the data and give Tack the advantage, though Beidler is sure to overperform.
Election Day Rating: Likely Tack
Springfield
Springfield Mayor Jim Langfelder is desperately fighting off his challenger, Misty Buscher, but it might not be enough. While the final result is likely to be extremely close, signs point to Buscher pulling off the win.
Polling from a few weeks ago put Buscher slightly in the lead, by 2%, which has been backed up since by our interviews on the ground. And the data from the most recent vote by mail and early voting report favors the center-right Buscher, with Democratic turnout just 3% higher than Republican turnout, a difference of only about 250 votes—much lower than the typical partisan split going into Election Day.
It’s not all bad news for the incumbent. Senior turnout so far has been quite strong, making up 59% of the turnout, and Langfelder is expected to do well with lifers, regardless of party affiliation. But female turnout is dominating at 57% of the vote so far, with three female candidates on the citywide ballot—odds are this will benefit Buscher.
Because Langfelder has always overperformed, this race truly is a toss up. But the data says Buscher has the advantage, so we’re going to go out on a limb a bit and say she is in prime position going into Election Day.
Election Day Rating: Lean Buscher
Joliet
The question in the Joliet mayoral race isn’t whether challenger Terry D’Arcy will defeat incumbent Bob O’DeKirk, but by how much.
Polling shows D’Arcy in the lead by double digits. This trend continued when we spoke with early voters in Joliet, with the vast majority saying they voted for D’Arcy. And the latest vote by mail and early voting report favors D’Arcy, with overall turnout skewing older, a demographic he is polling quite well with.
To be fair, there are some bright spots for O’DeKirk. Overall turnout is way down, which means it won’t take nearly as many votes to win—which favors the incumbent. Also, turnout is relatively higher among White voters, and O’DeKirk is expected to perform better among White working-class voters since he has the backing of local unions.
Even with those rays of sunshine, things look bleak for the incumbent. O’DeKirk will likely overperform his poll numbers, especially with low turnout so far and the potential for inclement weather on Election Day, but it won’t be enough.
Election Day Rating: Likely D’Arcy
Where Things Stood
Review our original preview from March on these races to watch here.
