April 4th Wards to Watch Analysis

27th Ward

Paul Vallas won this plurality Black ward with 25% of the vote in the first round, and he picked up the support of incumbent Alderman Walter Burnett Jr. just a few days into the runoff. The ward stretches from the near North Side to Humboldt Park and is partially represented by Brandon Johnson on the Cook County Board. This ward will gauge how large White turnout is compared to Black turnout and how much aldermanic endorsements actually matter.


21st Ward

The standout for turnout amongst Black wards in the first round, the 21st is still leading the pack for the runoff. The Aldermanic runoff is keeping this interesting and will be an indication of how well Brandon Johnson is doing with middle class Black voters.


30th Ward

Majority Latino with a White minority to the west, this ward went to Paul Vallas in the first round as a result of Chuy Garcia’s failed campaign. Luis Gutierrez’s daughter is in a runoff for alderman against Ruth Cruz, who’s being backed by the same people backing Vallas. Vallas should be winning here, and if he’s not, there’s a problem.


South Side Latino Wards 12, 14, and 22

These voters not showing up killed Chuy Garcia’s campaign in round one. The polling and the word on the street has Paul Vallas doing well with Latinos. The question is how many of them are actually going to show up.


44th Ward

Paul Vallas is parading around Alderman Tom Tunney like they’re running together. This isn’t a bad idea, as Vallas needs to hold onto his support among White voters to win. But a neighborhood as liberal as Lakeview has to have some reservations about Vallas as a candidate and mayor. Vallas won the ward in round one with Brandon Johnson 10 points behind him. If Vallas didn’t peak too early with White voters and holds onto that support through Election Day, it’ll show up in this ward on the Lake Shore.


What We’re Saying

Even with tomorrow being Election Day, the race is still completely up for grabs. Vallas has run a vastly superior race, both in strategy and execution, but because of the city’s makeup Johnson could still win. Read our primer for Election Day here: CorStrategies.com/news/chicago-mayoral-race-update/.

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