South Side Black Wards 4, 9, and 21 (Lightfoot vs Wilson)
These 3 wards have high profile aldermanic races which are driving up turnout beyond what most other Black wards are seeing. Wards 9 and 21 are far southside middle-class wards won by Willie Wilson in 2019 but are part of Lori Lightfoot’s expanded base this year. Ward 4 is the seat of Toni Preckwinkle’s power as well as the home of fellow mayoral challenger Sophia King. Lightfoot should play well in all these areas this year, but the more votes Wilson siphons in these wards, the more trouble Lightfoot is in.
North Side Progressive Wards 1, 33, and 35 (Garcia vs Lightfoot vs Johnson)
All 3 of these wards went for Chuy Garcia in 2015 and Lightfoot in 2019. They all have sizable Hispanic presences which would be good for Chuy if they actually turn out. Or voters may change their vote to Brandon Johnson, and the incumbent aldermen have been stumping for Johnson hard. The question is, how much are those voters moving? These wards very well may foretell Tuesday’s winner.
West Side Black Wards 28, 29, and 37 (Lightfoot vs Johnson vs Wilson)
These were all key wards for Willie Wilson in 2019, but Lori Lightfoot is focusing on Black voters to be a key part of her first round coalition. In addition, these are areas Brandon Johnson represents on the Cook County Board, so he should be pulling votes from here as well. Similar tale to the southside, if Wilson or Johnson are doing well here, it’s a sign Lightfoot is doing poorly.
Working Class White Wards 13, 19, and 41 (Vallas)
Paul Vallas should be putting up large margins in these wards, and the wards are dominating early voting in the city. The White working class turnout only stands to go up come Election Day. If Vallas isn’t pulling strong majorities here, he’s in trouble.
Downtown Wards 2, 34, and 42 (Vallas vs the Field)
Paul Vallas has endorsements here and most of his money comes from people who live in these wards. Don’t expect Vallas to perform as well as he does in the working class White wards, but these wards make up the rest of his winning coalition.
South Side Latino Wards 12, 14, and 22 (Garcia)
Chuy Garcia will do well here, but it isn’t about winning these wards…it’s about running up the score here. And the problem for Chuy so far is these wards simply aren’t turning out to vote. If their turnout was higher, these would be the wards putting Chuy into the runoff. If turnout in these wards increases dramatically on Election Day, Chuy has a shot.
North Side Latino Wards 30, 31, and 36 (Garcia vs Vallas)
These wards are less Mexican and more Puerto Rican with a sizeable White vote, demographics that have been leaning towards Vallas in polling. Garcia will need to these wards and see strong turnout to have a chance at making the runoff.
